投資學(xué)

內(nèi)容概要

本書中作者別具一格的“訓(xùn)練者方法”能抓住和保持讀者的注意力。瓊斯教授以一處學(xué)生能夠理解和欣賞的方式編排相關(guān)材料。書中告訴你如何獲取的評(píng)估高效信息、分析投資機(jī)會(huì)以及在投資時(shí)作出明智的決策。以跨國(guó)公司為主的國(guó)際企業(yè)的全球經(jīng)營(yíng)戰(zhàn)略，必然要求財(cái)務(wù)管理與之相適應(yīng)。比如，要求在全球范圍內(nèi)以最低的成本籌集資金，把資金投放于最有利的國(guó)家和地區(qū)，在全球范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行盈余分配，管好用好外匯資金等。這些都極大地促進(jìn)了財(cái)務(wù)管理國(guó)際化的進(jìn)程。

書籍目錄

PART ONE  BACKGROUNDPART THREE  iMPORTANT INVESTMENT CONCEPTSPART FOUR  FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES:AMALYSIS，VALUATION，AND MANAGEMENTPART FIVE  COMMON STOCKS：ANALYSIS，VALUATION，AND MANAGEMENTPART SIX  SECURITY ANALYSISPART SEVEN  DERIVATIVE SECURITIESPART EIGHT  INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

章節(jié)摘錄

書摘Citicorp, a large bank, has a large Visa operation. It regularly takes the cash flows from the monthly payments that customers make on their Visa accounts, securitizes them, and sells the resulting bonds to investors.    Marketable securities have been backed by car loans, credit-card receivables, railcar leases, small-business loans, photocopier leases, aircraft leases, and so forth. The assets that can be securitized seem to be limited only by the imagination of the packagers, as evidenced bythe fact that by 1996 new asset types included royalty streams from films, student loans, mutual fund fees, tax liens, monthly electric utility bills, and delinquent child support payments.    Why do investors like these asset-backed securities? The attractions are relatively high yields and relatively short maturities (often, five years) combined with investment grade credit ratings, typically the highest two ratings available? Investors are often protected by a bond insurer. Institutional investors such as pension funds and life insurance companies have become increasingly attracted to ABS because of the higher yields, and foreign investors are now buying these securities more often.As for risks, securitization works best when packaged loans are homogeneous, so that income streams and risks are more predictable. This is clearly the case for home mort gages, for example, which must adhere to strict guidelines. This is not the case for some of the newer loans being considered for packaging, such as loans for boats and motor cycles; the smaller amount of information results in a larger risk from unanticipated factors.Rates ors Fixed-Income Securities Interest rates on fixed-income ecurities fluctuate widely over the years as inflationary expectations change as well as demand and supply conditions for long-term funds. As we would expect on the basis of the return-risk trade-off explained in Chapter 1, corporate bond rates exceed Treasury rates because of the possible risk of default, and lower-rated corporates yield more than do higher-rated bonds. The municipal bond rate as reported is below all other rates, but we must remember that this is an after-tax rate. To make it comparable, municipal bond yields should be adjusted to a taxable equivalent yield using Equation 2-1. When this is done, the rate will be much closer to the taxable rates. Investors can obtain daily information on the ratesavailable on fixed-income securities in the "Credit Markets" section of The Wall Street Journal. The business cycle reflects movements in economic activity as a whole, which is comprised  of many diverse parts. The diversity of the parts ensures that business cycles are vvirtually unique, with no two parts identical. However, cycles do have a common framework, with a beginning (a trough), a peak, and an ending (a trough). Thus, economic activity starts in depressed conditions, builds up in the expansionary phase, and ends in a downturn, only to start again (perhaps because of government stimulus).    The typical business cycle in the United States seems to consist of an expansion averaging about 29 months if measured from 1854 through 1945, but almost 50 months if measured since the end of World War II. Contractions since the war average slightly  less than one year. Obviously, however, these are only averages, and we cannot rely on them exclusively to interpret current or future situations. For example, the March 1991 expansion became the longest peacetime expansion, and was still going in 2000. Business cycles cannot be neatly categorized as to length and turning points at the time they are occurring; only in hindsight can such nice distinctions be made.     To make good use of business cycle data, an investor needs to monitor indicaction the economy. A good source of help in this regard is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit organization, the official arbiter of economic turning points.    The NBER dates the business cycle when possible. The duration of the contraction and expansion is measured in addition to other pertinent data. In their examination process, the NBER attempts to identify those components of economic activity that move at different times from each other. Such variables can serve as indicators of the economy in general.    Current practice is to identify leading, coincident, and lagging composite indexes of general economic activity. The NBER currently focuses on 10 leading indicators as representing the best combination of desirable characteristics.2 An increase in the composite index of l0 leading economic indicators generally relates positively to an expansion over the following three to 12 months, whereas a decrease in this composite indicates the likelihood of an immediate downturn. The coincident and lagging indicators serve to confirm (or negate) the indications of the leading series. If the leading index signal is not confirmed first by the coincident index and then by the lagging index, investors should reconsider the signal.3    How useful is the index of leading indicators? Many feel it is no longer as accurate in the New Economy, having given a number of incorrect signals. This is perhaps due to the changing nature of a dynamic economy such as the U.S. economy. The leading indicators were developed in the 1960s, before the move to a global economy, downsizing, the major use of temporary employees, and the emphasis on technology. However, they are revised periodically in an attempt to be better attuned to the current and future state of the economy. And they are still officially used to assess current economic conditions.The Markowitz model is typically thought of in terms of selecting portfolios of individual securities; indeed, that is how Markowitz expected his model to be used. As we know,however, it is a cumbersome model to employ because of the number of covariance estimates needed when dealing with a large number of individual securities.    An alternative way to use the Markowitz model as a selection technique is to think in terms of asset classes, such as domestic stocks, foreign stocks of industrialized countries, the stocks of emerging markets, bonds, and so forth. Using the model in this manner, investors decide what asset classes to own and what proportions of the asset classes to hold.    The asset allocation decision refers to the allocation of portfolio assets to broad asset markets; in other words, how much of the portfoho's funds is to be invested in stocks, how much in bonds, money market assets, and so forth. Each weight can range from zero percent to 100 percent. Examining the asset allocation decision globally leads us to ask the following questions:    1. What percentage of portfolio funds is to be invested in each of the countries for which financial markets are available to investors?    2. Within each country, what percentage of portfolio funds is to be invested in stocks, bonds, bills, and other assets?    3. Within each of the major asset classes, what percentage of portfolio funds is to go to various types of bonds, exchange stocks versus over-the-counter stocks,and so forth?    Many knowledgeable market observers agree that the asset allocation decision is the most important decision made by an investor. According to some studies, for example,asset allocation decision accounts for more than 90 percent of the variance in quarterly returns for a typical large pension fund?    The rationale behind 'this approach is that different asset classes offer various potential returns and various levels of risk, and the correlation coefficients may be quite low As with the Markowitz analysis applied to individual securities, inputs remain a problem because they must be estimated. However, this will always be a problem in investing because we are selecting assets to be held over the uncertain future.    Programs exist to calculate efficient frontiers using asset classes. These programs allow for a variety of constraints, such as minimum yield and no short selling.    As an indication of what can be accomplished using asset classes for an investment program, consider Box I9-1, which suggests that investors can diversify across mutual funds to create a bearproof portfolio, Portfolio funds are spread across seven asset classes:blue-chip stocks, small-cap stocks, international equities, domestic bonds, international bonds, gold, and money markets. Such a portfolio is said to have outperformed the S&P500 Index over a 22-year period by more than two percentage points annually while avoiding every bear market during the period. The analysis in Box 19-1 does not employ the Markowitz efficient frontier technique because it simply uses equal portfolio weights for each of the seven asset classes. Presumably, Markowitz analysis could improve the results obtained from this strategy.    Whether we use the Markowitz analysis for asset classes or individual securities, the end result is an efficient frontier of risky portfolios and the choice of an optimal risky portfolio based on investor preferences. We must now consider the situation when we combihe risk-free assets with the optimal portfolio of risky assets. The efficient frontier changes dramatically.    ……

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序言現(xiàn)代財(cái)務(wù)管理首創(chuàng)于西方，經(jīng)過一百多年的不斷發(fā)展和完善，形成了市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下財(cái)務(wù)管理的理論體系和方法體系。特別是20世紀(jì)50年代以后，隨著跨國(guó)公司的迅猛發(fā)展和國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)的不斷完善，財(cái)務(wù)管理已經(jīng)逐步形成一門國(guó)際化的學(xué)科。    第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來，隨著生產(chǎn)的發(fā)展和科學(xué)技術(shù)的不斷進(jìn)步，跨國(guó)企業(yè)得到了前所未有的發(fā)展。那些大企業(yè)通過對(duì)國(guó)外直接投資，在國(guó)外設(shè)立分支機(jī)構(gòu)或子公司，形成了一個(gè)從國(guó)內(nèi)到國(guó)外，從生產(chǎn)到銷售，按著自己的“全球戰(zhàn)略”，在世界范圍內(nèi)追逐高額利潤(rùn)的獨(dú)特的企業(yè)體系，這就是現(xiàn)代意義上的跨國(guó)公司。以跨國(guó)公司為主的國(guó)際企業(yè)的全球經(jīng)營(yíng)戰(zhàn)略，必然要求財(cái)務(wù)管理與之相適應(yīng)。比如，要求在全球范圍內(nèi)以最低的成本籌集資金，把資金投放于最有利的國(guó)家和地區(qū)，在全球范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行盈余分配，管好用好外匯資金等。這些都極大地促進(jìn)了財(cái)務(wù)管理國(guó)際化的進(jìn)程。    第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來，由于科技革命的影響，生產(chǎn)國(guó)際化提高到一個(gè)新的階段，生產(chǎn)國(guó)際化又推動(dòng)了資本國(guó)際化，國(guó)際資金借貸日益頻繁，國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)達(dá)到空前規(guī)模，極大地促進(jìn)了國(guó)際金融的發(fā)展。近四十年來，國(guó)際金融交易出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)重大變化，這就是試圖擺脫任何一國(guó)的管轄和影響，出現(xiàn)了新興的國(guó)際市場(chǎng)——境外金融市場(chǎng)，如歐洲美元市場(chǎng)、亞洲美元市場(chǎng)。這種市場(chǎng)不受所在國(guó)金融、外匯政策的限制，可以自由籌措資金，進(jìn)行外匯交易，實(shí)行自由匯率，無須繳納存款準(zhǔn)備金。這種金融市場(chǎng)最早出現(xiàn)在倫敦，以后在新加坡、香港等地相繼開設(shè)。國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)的新發(fā)展，為企業(yè)迅速籌集資金和合理運(yùn)用資金提供了方便條件，但同時(shí)也對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理提出了新的要求，促進(jìn)了財(cái)務(wù)管理國(guó)際化的發(fā)展。    財(cái)務(wù)管理的歷史本來就是一部國(guó)際化的歷史。通常，人們都認(rèn)為現(xiàn)代財(cái)務(wù)管理于19世紀(jì)產(chǎn)生于美國(guó)，并迅速傳入歐洲。英國(guó)把財(cái)務(wù)管理的原理傳入了印度及其他英聯(lián)邦國(guó)家。二次大戰(zhàn)后，亞洲的日本，韓國(guó)、臺(tái)灣和香港由于吸收了歐美財(cái)務(wù)管理的方法，極大地促進(jìn)了上述國(guó)家和地區(qū)的財(cái)務(wù)管理的發(fā)展。與此同時(shí)，前蘇聯(lián)在吸收歐美財(cái)務(wù)管理基本原理的基礎(chǔ)上，集合社會(huì)主義國(guó)家財(cái)務(wù)活動(dòng)的特點(diǎn)，建立了社會(huì)主義國(guó)家的財(cái)務(wù)管理體系，并將其迅速傳入東歐和中國(guó)等社會(huì)主義國(guó)家，推動(dòng)了社會(huì)主義國(guó)家財(cái)務(wù)管理的形成和發(fā)展，受上述傳播的影響，到目前為止，財(cái)務(wù)管理的一些基本原理在各國(guó)大致相同。例如，財(cái)務(wù)分析中的比率分析原理，財(cái)務(wù)計(jì)劃中的平衡原理，財(cái)務(wù)控制中的分權(quán)原理，財(cái)務(wù)決策中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)原理都基本一致?？梢哉f，財(cái)務(wù)管理的基本原理和方法是國(guó)際性遺產(chǎn)，它屬于全人類?？茖W(xué)地吸收現(xiàn)代西方財(cái)務(wù)管理的精華，對(duì)完善我國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)管理理論，指導(dǎo)財(cái)務(wù)管理實(shí)踐都具有重要意義。    據(jù)我們所知，當(dāng)前影印或翻譯的有關(guān)工商管理叢書、會(huì)計(jì)叢書很多，但財(cái)務(wù)管理方面的叢書還沒有見到，中信出版社此次影印的“現(xiàn)代企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理叢書”，在這方面填補(bǔ)了空白。這套叢書的作者，皆為世界財(cái)務(wù)管理學(xué)界知名教授。他們這些教材，在世界各地大學(xué)廣泛使用，被證明是結(jié)構(gòu)合理、資料豐富、語(yǔ)言精練、通俗易懂的優(yōu)秀教材。 我認(rèn)為，本套叢書的出版，不論是對(duì)中國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)管理教育還是財(cái)務(wù)管理的實(shí)踐，都將起到極大的推動(dòng)作用。                                                                     王化成                                                      2002年春于中國(guó)人民大學(xué)商學(xué)院

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