決策的本質(zhì)

內(nèi)容概要

　　這是第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后最有影響力的政治學(xué)著作之一?！稕Q策的本質(zhì)》原作以獨(dú)特的視角審視了冷戰(zhàn)時期的關(guān)鍵事件。此經(jīng)典著作的第二版不僅僅是修訂，更是重寫：重新解釋了古巴導(dǎo)彈危機(jī)前后的理論及事件；也融入了肯尼迪錄音帶及最近解密的蘇聯(lián)文件的信息。第二版提煉了原著中格雷厄姆·阿利森任美國助理國防部長及哈佛大學(xué)肯尼迪政府學(xué)院院長時期的一些評論和觀點(diǎn)。同時也有一位新的作者菲利普·澤利科參與了第二版的撰寫，他著有十分暢銷的評論著作《肯尼迪錄音帶》(The Kennedy Tapes，Harvard University Press，1 997)。　《決策的本質(zhì)》(第二版)鮮活地展現(xiàn)了重壓之下的決策過程，此書也是唯一一部嘗試解決這一經(jīng)久不衰的問題的著作：人們?nèi)绾卫斫庹呐e動?

作者簡介

　　格雷厄姆·阿利森（Graham T.Allison），哈佛大學(xué)肯尼迪政府學(xué)院院長、教授，曾在克林頓政府時期任助理國防部長。

書籍目錄

PrefaceIntroduction1　Model I： The Rational ActorA Rigorous Model of ActionA Rational Actor ParadigmThe Classical Model IllustratedClassical Realism. Neorealism (Structural Realism).International Institutionalism. Liberalism. Strategy， War，and Rational Choice.Variants and Uses of the Classical Model2 The Cuban Missile Crisis： A First CutWhy Did the Soviet Union Decide to Place Offensive Missiles inCuba?Hypothesis 1： Cuban Defense. Hypothesis 2： Cold War Politics.Hypothesis 3： Missile Power. Hypothesis 4： Berlin--Win，Trade， or Trap.Why Did the United States Respond to the Missile Deploymentwith a Blockade?Alternative I： Do Nothing. Alternative 2： DiplomaticPressures. Alternative 3： A Secret Approach to Castro.Alternative 4： Invasion. Alternative 5： Air Strike.Alternative 6： Blockade.Why Did the Soviet Union Withdraw the Missiles?3　Model II： Organizational BehaviorOrganizational Logic and EfficiencyOrganizational Logic and Organizational CultureInteractive ComplexityNASA： Hero and GoatOrganizational Behavior Paradigm4 The Cuban Missile Crisis： A Second CutDeployment of Soviet Missiles in CubaThe Soviet Build-up in Detail. OrganizationalImplementation.Imposition of a U.S. Blockade of CubaOrganizational Intelligence. Organizational Options.Organizational Implementation.The Withdrawal of Soviet Missiles from Cuba5 Model III： Governmental PoliticsThe Governmental Politics Model Illustrated __1. Separated Institutions Sharing Power. 2. The Power toPersuade. 3. Bargaining According to the Processes. 4. PowerEquals Impact on Outcome. 5. Intranational andInternational Relations.Group Processes and Their Effects on Choices and Action1. Better Decisions. 2. The "Agency" Problem： Principals，Agents， and Players. 3. Participants： Who Plays? 4. DecisionRules. 5. Framing Issues and Setting Agendas. 6. Groupthink.7. Complexity of ]oint Action.A Governmental Politics Paradigm6 The Cuban Missile Crisis： A Third CutThe Imposition of a Blockade by the United StatesThe Politics of Discovery. The Politics of Choice.Soviet Withdrawal of the Missiles from CubaSoviets Kill an American U-2 Pilot. The President and theChairman. The "Deal"： Resolving the Turkish Problem.The "Deal"： Resolving the Cuban Problem.7 ConclusionSumming Up： Differences in InterpretationSumming Up： Different Answers or Different Questions?Where Do We Go from Here?Index

編輯推薦

　　不愧為全面、有深度、新穎的著作?！　　蟻喣取の侄鳎―iane Vaughan），波士頓大學(xué)　　優(yōu)于經(jīng)典、高于原創(chuàng)的著作?！　　聿榈隆へ惔模≧ichard K.Betts），哥倫比亞大學(xué)　　修訂版加強(qiáng)了在理論和歷史方面的內(nèi)容，顯求了卓越成效！　　——斯　科特·薩根（Scott Sagan），斯坦福大學(xué)

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