實證會計理論

前言

This book reviews the theory and methodology underlyingthe large and growing economics-based empirical literature in account-ing. Theory does not present a rule for choosing among alternativeaccounting procedures （e.g., choose the one that better matches revenueand expense）. Rather, theory provides an explanation for accountingand auditing practice. For example, a theory explains why some firmsuse accelerated depreciation methods and others use straight line andwhy some firms use Big Eight auditors and others do not. Such a theoryis important to accountants and managers; it helps them to make betterdecisions when conditions change and they are confronted with unfa-miliar situations.The theory, as it currently exists, is far from complete. In fact,the investigation into the factors affecting accounting and auditingpractice is just beginning, and the causes of the empirical regularitiesthat have been observed are still debated. This is expected because theworld is complex and continually changing. Complexity and changeensure that we will never have a complete theory of accounting.

內(nèi)容概要

　　《實證會計理論》是第一部匯集實證研究成果的會計理論專著，也是久負盛名的實證研究的發(fā)源地——羅切斯特大學——所屬學派研究成果的濃縮，總結了瓦茨和齊默爾曼在1978—1979年提出的實證會計理論框架，以及隨后產(chǎn)生的一些經(jīng)驗主義的證據(jù)。兩位著名會計學專家在書中探討了資產(chǎn)計價模型、盈利信息含量、管理者薪酬計劃、會計政策選擇等實證會計研究的前沿領域，介紹和評述了許多著名的實證研究成果。《實證會計理論》雖成書于20世紀80年代后期，但經(jīng)久不衰，所倡導的實證研究方法也風行學界。它是最經(jīng)常被引用的經(jīng)典會計著作之一，也是會計專業(yè)研究生的必讀書。

作者簡介

作者：(英國)羅斯·L·瓦茨 (Ross L.Watts) (英國)杰羅爾德·L·齊默爾曼 (Jerold L.Zimmerman) 羅斯·L·瓦茨(RossL Watts)，羅切斯特大學教授，著名會計學家。1971年在芝加哥大學獲博士學位。曾任澳大利亞紐卡斯爾大學商業(yè)系主任，羅切斯特大學教員委員會副主席，西蒙商學院院長遴選委員會主席、金融研究與政策項目主任、院長顧問，兼任．Journal0，AccountingandEconomics等學術期刊的編委。杰羅爾德·L·齊默爾曼(JeroldL．Zimmerman)。羅切斯特大學教授，著名會計學家。兼任。JournalofAccountingandEconomics等學術期刊的編委。講授會計學、財務學和經(jīng)濟學等多門課程，著述主要集中在成本分配、預算、審計、財務會計理論、兼并與收購、資本市場等領域。

書籍目錄

前言序言第1章  會計理論的作用第2章  有效市場假說與資本資產(chǎn)計價模型第3章  會計盈利與股票價格第4章  競爭性假說的辨識第5章  會計數(shù)據(jù)、破產(chǎn)與風險第6章  盈利預測第7章  信息揭示管制理論的演變：一種新理論的開端第8章  訂約程序第9章  薪酬計劃、債務契約與會計程序第10章  會計與政治活動第11章  會計選擇的經(jīng)驗檢驗第12章  股票價格的檢驗理論第13章  契約理論在審計中的應用第14章  會計研究的作用第15章  實證會計理論：總結、評價與前景參考文獻

章節(jié)摘錄

Biddle and Lindahl's sample is 311 LIFO change firms and spansthe years 1973 through 1980. But over half the sample, 183 firms, areclustered in 1974. They find that the c1 and C2 coefficients are positiveand statistically significant. That is, the larger the tax savings, the largerthe change in the value of the firm. Similarly, the larger the unexpected"as if" earnings, the higher the value of the firm. These results areconsistent with the EMH and the capitalization of the tax savings andare inconsistent with the mechanistic hypothesis.Over half of Biddle and Lindahl's sample have decreases in risk,a finding that is inconsistent with Ball, Sunder, and Ricks. The coeffi-cient of tax savings is still positive and significant after accounting forthe risk changes.One methodological problem with the study is the clusteringof the observations in time and in particular industries. The resultsare primarily due to 1974 changes. The clustering means that there iscross-sectional correlation in the data that will tend to understate thestandard errors of, and overstate the significance of, the coefficients c~and c2.Perhaps a more important problem is discovered when Biddleand Lindahl estimate equation （4.2） using abnormal returns for theindividual quarters of 1974. The coefficient of the tax savings vari-able is significantly positive only for the regressions estimated using thefirst and third quarters of 1974. It is significantly negative for thefourth quarter, a quarter in which the change tends to be announced.Biddle and Lindahl explain this result by suggesting that it couldbe due to measurement errors in abnormal returns （see Biddle andLindahl, 1982, p. 581）. Their measurement error explanation doesnot rule out the mechanistic hypothesis but rather is another competinghypothesis.CONCLUSIONBiddle and Lindahl's argument that Ricks's results are influencedby a self-selection bias is plausible, and it is consistent with macroecon-omic data. Their own results from using a 15-month cumulation periodfor abnormal returns （which confirm the joint hypothesis and rejectthe mechanistic hypothesis）, combined with this argument, suggest thatthe no-effects hypothesis rather than the competing hypothesis isdescriptive. However, the negative coefficient of tax savings for thefourth quarter of 1974 confuses the issue. More empirical research intothe fourth quarter effect and the contradictory results of Ricks （1982）and Biddle and Lindahl （1982） will undoubtedly be forthcoming.A common hypothesis in the accounting literature prior to theintroduction of the EMH, CAPM, and positive theory was that the stockmarket is misled by changes in accounting procedures. Such a hy-pothesis contradicts the EMH, which implies that the stock marketreacts in an unbiased fashion to all information, including informationthat accounting procedures have changed. The natural outcome, giventhe early empiricists' adherence to scientific methodology, was anattempt to discriminate empirically between the two hypotheses.The EMH has no predictions about the direction or sign of stockprice changes associated with accounting changes. Its only predictionis that any stock price changes accompanying accounting changes aresuch that the resultant stock price is an unbiased estimate of the stock'sfuture value. Prediction of stock price changes requires a valuationmodel. I nfiuenced by the finance literature, the early researchers adoptedthe CAPM and its assumptions of no information and transaction costs.The only potential cash flow effect of accounting procedures wasassumed to be taxes. Thus they predicted that no stock price changeswould accompany accounting changes unless those changes affectedtaxes.The competing hypothesis （the mechanistic hypothesis） has acontradictory prediction （i.e., that an accounting change that increasesearnings increases stock prices）. The earliest researchers attempted todiscriminate between the two contradictory predictions. Kaplan andRoll （1972） investigated stock price changes associated with changes inprocedures for the investment tax credit and depreciation switchbacksusing the event study methodology introduced to accounting by Balland Brown （1968）. Ball （1972） investigated the stock price effects of alltypes of accounting changes, arguing that the stock price effect of anychanges affecting taxes would not influence the predictions.Both studies revealed methodological problems associated withusing event studies to test the stock price effects of accounting changes.A problem observable in the results of both is a selection bias in termsof contemporaneous unexpected earnings that prevents the "averagingout" of variables other than accounting changes. A second problempresent in the Kaplan and Roll study is the clustering of observationsin time and industries. That clustering also leads to the result thatvariables other than accounting changes do not average out. A thirdproblem Ball's study reveals also involves the violation of the ceterisparibus assumptionmthe risk of a firm's stock changes when accountingprocedures change.very weak evidence on the no-effects hypothesis. This methodologicalproblem and those in the preceding paragraph reduce the ability ofthe early studies to discriminate between the no-effects and mechanistichypotheses.A more powerful test of the no-effects hypothesis is a test of anonzero stock price change prediction. Such a prediction can begenerated from the no-effects hypothesis for accounting changes thataffect taxes. Sunder （1973, 1975） led the literature in this direction bytrying to discriminate between the two competing hypotheses usingLIFO and FIFO changes. Sunder's study, however, is subject to theclustering and contemporaneous unexpected earnings selection biasproblems.Eventually, studies attempted to discriminate between the hy-potheses using LIFO changes and controlling for the contemporaneousunexpected earnings selection bias. Ricks （1982） controls the selectionbias problem by matching firms that change to LIFO with firms thatdo not change but have approximately the same earnings change. Hefinds evidence consistent with the mechanistic hypothesis and incon-sistent with the no-effects hypothesis.Biddle and Lindahl （1982） argue that Ricks's matching procedureintroduces a self-selection bias that can explain Ricks's results. Theyconcentrate on LIFO change firms, controlling the earnings selectionbias using unexpected earnings as an explanatory variable when testingthe effect of LIFO tax savings on abnormal rates of return. Biddle andLindahl's results are consistent with the no-effects hypothesis andinconsistent with the mechanistic hypothesis. However, those resultsare not definitive because the stock price effects of the tax savings areconcentrated in early quarters and because of clustering problems.The way the discriminatory tests developed illustrates the waystudies build on previous studies. Problems discovered in one study areaddressed by a later study. The literature gradually iterates towardmore powerful tests, tests that can better discriminate. No early studycan hope to be definitive. The development process shows that progressis made by attempting to answer the questions. The more powerfultests used by Biddle and Lindahl are possible because of the efforts ofthe pioneers, Kaplan and Roll, Ball and Sunder.The literature, the leading articles of which are summarized inthis chapter, had an important effect that has not been discussed: itcaused researchers to ask questions that led to a related, but differentliterature on the stock price effect of accounting changes. One of thequestions raised is, Why do whole industries change accounting proce-dures （e.g., paper and steel in Kaplan and Roll's sample） when suchchanges are costly and have no beneficial effects on stock price？ Thosequestions, in turn, led some researchers to drop the zero information

編輯推薦

《實證會計理論》的主要貢獻在于：深入研究了會計信息（主要是盈利信息）與股票價格的相關性；針對會計與管理者薪酬計劃、債務契約進行了實證檢驗；對會計政策選擇進行了實證檢驗。作者在引進有效市場假說與資本資產(chǎn)計價模型的基礎上，通過檢驗。提出了信息成本不為零的觀點。由于信息成本、代理成本和政治成本等的存在，進一步論證了契約理論和各種最佳選擇的必要性。《實證會計理論》的出版，對提高實證會計理論研究和掌握實證會計研究方法具有重要的指導意義，有利于推動我國實證會計研究的發(fā)展?！鸺忆鴮嵶C會計理論從20世紀70年代末被提出至今已有30年了。回顧這30年會計研究發(fā)展的歷史。實證會計理論在其中占據(jù)了重要的地位。實證會計理論一個最重要的貢獻在于把會計方法作為主要的研究變量，引導會計研究者對會計問題進行思考，改變了純粹把會計抽象為一個信息信號的思考角度，為會計研究注入了活力。

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