預(yù)測(cè)與時(shí)間序列(英文版第3版)/經(jīng)典原版書庫 (平裝)

內(nèi)容概要

本書是預(yù)測(cè)與時(shí)間序列分析課程的教材，書中講解了預(yù)測(cè)的重要過程以及可以用于預(yù)測(cè)的各種統(tǒng)計(jì)技術(shù)。作者清晰地展示了在營銷、金融，人力資源管理，產(chǎn)品調(diào)度，過程控制和策略管理中通過預(yù)測(cè)做出明智決策的重要性。
    本書適合作為工商管理、理工(包括數(shù)學(xué)、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)、計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)等)類高年級(jí)本科生和研究生的教材，同時(shí)可以作為需要進(jìn)行現(xiàn)實(shí)預(yù)測(cè)的專業(yè)人員的參考書。

書籍目錄

PART IINTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1 AN INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTING 2  1.1 Introduction  1.2 Forecasting and Time Series  1.3 Forecasting Methods  1.4 Errors in Forecasting  1.5 Choosing a Forecasting Technique  1.6 An Overview of Quantitative Forecasting Techniques  1.7 Computer Packages: Minitab and SAS  Exercises CHAPTER 2 BASIC STATISTICAL CONCEPTS  2.1 Populations  2.2 Probability  2.3 Random Samples and Sample Statistics  2.4 Continuous Probability Distributions  2.5 The Normal Probability Distribution  2.6 The t-Distribution, the F-Distribution, and the Chi-Square Distribution  2.7 Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean  2.8 Hypothesis Testing for a Population Mean  ExercisesPART IIFORECASTING BY USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS CHAPTER 3 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION  3.1 The Simple Linear Regression Model  3.2 The Least Squares Point Estimates  3.3 Point Estimates and Point Predictions  3.4 Model Assumptions, the Mean Square Error, and the Standard Error  3.5 Testing the Significance of the Independent Variable  3.6 A Confidence Interval for a Mean Value of the Dependent Variable and a  Prediction Interval for an Individual Value of the Dependent Variable  3.7 Simple Coefficients of Determination and Correlation  3.8 An F-Test for the Simple Linear Regression Model  3.9 Using the Computer  Exercises CHAPTER 4 MULTIPLE REGRESSION CHAPTER 5 TOPICS IN REGRESSION ANALYSISPART IIIFORECASTING BY USING TIME SERIES REGRESSION,DECOMPOSITION METHODS,AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING CHAPTER 6 TIME SERIES REGRESSION CHAPTER 7 DECOMPOSITION METHODS CHAPTER 8PART IVFORECASTING BY USING BASIC TECHNIQUESOF THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY CHAPTER 9 NONSEASONAL BOX-JENKINS MODELS AND THEIR TENTATIVE IDENTIFICATION CHAPTER 10 ESTIMATION, DIAGNOSTIC CHECKING, AND FORECASTING FOR NONSEASONAL BOX-JENKINS MODELS CHAPTER 11 AN INTRODUCTION TO BOX-JENKINS SEASONAL MODELINGPART VFORECASTING BY USING ADVANCED TECHNIQUES OFTHE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY CHAPTER12 GENERAL BOX-JENKINS SEASONAL MODELING CHAPTER13 USING THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY TO IMPROVE TIME SERIES REGRESSION MODELS CHAPTER 14 TRANSFER FUNCTIONS AND INTERVENTION MODELS APPENDIX A STATISTICAL TABLES APPENDIX B REFERENCES

編輯推薦

　　本書的主要特點(diǎn) 　　清晰、完善地介紹了Box-Jenkins方法。　　精確、易于理解地討論了傳遞函數(shù)和干涉模型，并介紹了多元時(shí)間序列分析?！　〗o出了基于真實(shí)案例的大量習(xí)題?！　∈褂肕INITAB和SAS輸出給出預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果，并有選修的章節(jié)詳細(xì)講述MINITAB和SAS的用法。　　			

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