企業(yè)分析與估價(jià)

前言

　　自教育部在《關(guān)于加強(qiáng)高等學(xué)校本科教學(xué)工作提高教學(xué)質(zhì)量的若干意見(jiàn)》【教高（2001）4號(hào)】中提出雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)的要求后，各地高校相繼開(kāi)設(shè)了一系列雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)課程。這對(duì)提高學(xué)生的學(xué)科和外文水平，開(kāi)闊國(guó)際視野，培養(yǎng)創(chuàng)新型人才起到了重要的作用；一大批教師也逐漸熟悉了外文授課，自身的教學(xué)水平和能力得到較大提高，具備國(guó)際學(xué)術(shù)思維的中青年教師脫穎而出。同時(shí)，經(jīng)過(guò)近幾年的雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)實(shí)踐，國(guó)外原版教材量大、邏輯不夠清晰、疏離中國(guó)現(xiàn)實(shí)等問(wèn)題也影響了雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)的效果。因此，對(duì)外版教材進(jìn)行本土化的精簡(jiǎn)改編，使之更加適合我國(guó)的雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)已提上教材建設(shè)日程?！　榱藵M足高等學(xué)校經(jīng)濟(jì)管理類雙語(yǔ)課程本土化教學(xué)的需要，在教育部高等教育司的指導(dǎo)和支持下，高等教育出版社同Thomson Leaming等國(guó)外著名出版公司通力合作，在國(guó)內(nèi)首次推出了金融、會(huì)計(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等專業(yè)的英文原版改編教材。本套教材的遴選、改編和出版嚴(yán)格遵循了以下幾個(gè)原則：　　1．擇優(yōu)選取權(quán)威的新版本。在各專業(yè)選書(shū)論證會(huì)上，我們要求入選改編的教材不僅是在國(guó)際上多次再版的經(jīng)典之作的最新版本，而且是近年來(lái)已在國(guó)內(nèi)被試用的優(yōu)秀教材。　　2．改編后的教材力求內(nèi)容規(guī)范簡(jiǎn)明，邏輯更加清晰，語(yǔ)言原汁原味，適合中國(guó)的雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)。選擇的改編人既熟悉原版教材內(nèi)容又具有本書(shū)或本門課程雙語(yǔ)教學(xué)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)；在改編過(guò)程中，高等教育出版社組織了知名專家學(xué)者召開(kāi)了數(shù)次改編和審稿會(huì)議，改編稿征求了眾多教師的意見(jiàn)。　　3．改編后的教材配有較豐富的輔助教學(xué)支持資源，教師可在網(wǎng)上免費(fèi)獲取。同時(shí)，改編后的教材厚度適中，定價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)較低。　　由于原作者所處國(guó)家的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化背景等與我國(guó)不同，對(duì)書(shū)中所持觀點(diǎn)，敬請(qǐng)廣大讀者在閱讀過(guò)程中注意加以分析和鑒別?！　〈舜斡⑽母木幗滩牡某霭?，得到了很多專家學(xué)者的支持和幫助，在此深表謝意！我們期待這批英文改編教材的出版能對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理類專業(yè)的教學(xué)能有所幫助，歡迎廣大讀者給我們提出寶貴的意見(jiàn)和建議。

內(nèi)容概要

　　《企業(yè)分析與估價(jià)》的框架結(jié)構(gòu)獨(dú)具特色，不同于常見(jiàn)的“報(bào)表結(jié)構(gòu)介紹一報(bào)表科目分析一比率分析”的體例安排，而是跳出會(huì)計(jì)數(shù)字的迷宮，從最原初的企業(yè)性質(zhì)開(kāi)始闡述財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表與企業(yè)商業(yè)活動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系，然后逐步講解戰(zhàn)略分析、會(huì)計(jì)政策分析和財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析。全書(shū)包括三個(gè)部分：第一部分概要地介紹了“借助財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表進(jìn)行商業(yè)分析和評(píng)估的框架”，第二部分具體展開(kāi)描述了“商業(yè)分析和評(píng)估工具”，第三部分是前兩部分（框架和工具）在實(shí)務(wù)領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用，包括權(quán)益證券的價(jià)值評(píng)估、信用分析和破產(chǎn)危機(jī)預(yù)測(cè)、兼并收購(gòu)的定價(jià)和融資等?！　　镀髽I(yè)分析與估價(jià)》理論與實(shí)務(wù)相結(jié)合的綜合訓(xùn)練對(duì)身處以“3C（change、competition、customerization）”為特征的信息經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代的學(xué)生很有益處，非常適合作為本科、會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)碩士和MBA的高級(jí)會(huì)計(jì)課程教材。

作者簡(jiǎn)介

　　Krishna G．Palepu，美國(guó)哈佛商學(xué)院會(huì)計(jì)和控制學(xué)系首席教授，工商管理教授，其研究領(lǐng)域包括公司兼并收購(gòu)的效率、公司財(cái)務(wù)政策、投資者溝通程序等。Palepu教授曾獲得1997年度wildman獎(jiǎng)，美國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)1999年度會(huì)計(jì)人物杰出貢獻(xiàn)獎(jiǎng)。　　Paul M．Healy，美國(guó)哈佛商學(xué)院工商管理教授，其研究領(lǐng)域包括公司披露政策及其對(duì)資本成本的影響、兼并收購(gòu)的效率、盈余管理和管理層激勵(lì)。Healy教授曾獲得美國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)1990年度和1999年度會(huì)計(jì)人物杰出貢獻(xiàn)獎(jiǎng)，1997年度Wildman獎(jiǎng)。　　victor L．Bernard，美國(guó)密歇根大學(xué)佩頓會(huì)計(jì)研究中心會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)教授，其研究領(lǐng)域包括公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告、財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析、財(cái)務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等。Bernarcl教授曾獲得美國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)1991年度、1993年度和1999年度會(huì)計(jì)人物杰出貢獻(xiàn)獎(jiǎng)、1997年度Wildman獎(jiǎng)。Bernard教授不幸于1995年辭世?！　「木幖皩徯Ｕ吆?jiǎn)介　　方軍雄，復(fù)旦大學(xué)管理學(xué)院會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)講師，師從于李若山教授，2002年獲得管理學(xué)博士學(xué)位，CPA，研究方向?yàn)闀?huì)計(jì)與資本市場(chǎng)實(shí)證研究?！　『閯η?，復(fù)旦大學(xué)管理學(xué)院會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)副教授，副系主任，師從于谷超豪院士，1994年獲得數(shù)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。研究領(lǐng)域包括會(huì)計(jì)與資本市場(chǎng)實(shí)證研究、解析會(huì)計(jì)研究。

書(shū)籍目錄

Part 1 FRAMEWORKA Framework for Business Analysis and Valuation UsingFinancial StatementsThe Role of Financial Reporting in Capital MarketsFrom Business Activities to Financial StatementsFrom Financial Statements to Business AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsPart 2 BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND VALUATION TOOLS Strategy AnalysisIndustry AnalysisApplying Industry Analysis: The Personal Computer IndustryCompetitive Strategy AnalysisCorporate Strategy AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsOverview of Accounting AnalysisThe Institutional Framework for Financial ReportingFactors Influencing Accounting QualitySteps in Doing Accounting AnalysisAccounting Analysis PitfallsValue of Accounting Data and Accounting AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsImplementing Accounting AnalysisRecasting Financial StatementsAsset DistortionsOverstated AssetsUnderstated AssetsLiability DistortionsEquity DistortionsSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: Recasting Financial Statements Into Standardized TemplatesFinancial AnalysisRatio AnalysisCash Flow AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: Part A: Nordstrom, Inc. Financial StatementsPart B: The TJX Companies, Inc. Financial StatementsProspective Analysis: ForecastingRelation of Forecasting to Other AnalysesThe Techniques of ForecastingMaking ForecastsSensitivity AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: The Behavior of Components of ROEProspective Analysis: Valuation Theory and ConceptsDefining Value for ShareholdersThe Discounted Abnormal Earnings Valuation MethodValuation Using Price MultiplesShortcut Forms of Earnings-Based ValuationThe Discounted Cash Flow ModelComparing Valuation MethodsSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: Reconciling the Discounted Dividends and Discounted Abnormal Earnings ModelsProspective Analysis: Valuation ImplementationDetailed Forecasts of PerformanceComputing a Discount RateTerminal ValuesComputing Estimated ValuesSummaryDiscussion QuestionsPart 3 BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND VALUATION APPLICATIONSEquity Security AnlysisInvestor ObjectivesEquity Security Analysis and Market EfficiencyApproaches to Fund Management and Securities AnalysisThe Process of a Comprehensive Security AnalysisPerformance of Security Analysts and Fund ManagersSummaryDiscussion QuestionsCredit Analysis and Distress PredictionThe Market for CreditThe Credit Analysis ProcessFinancial Statement Analysis and Public DebtPrediction of Distress and TurnaroundSummaryDiscussion QuestionsMergers and AcquisitionsMotivation for Merger or AcquisitionAcquisition PricingAcquisition FinancingAcquisition OutcomeSummaryDiscussion QuestionsCorporate Financing PoliciesFactors That Determine Firms Debt PoliciesThe Optimal Long-Term Mix of Debt and EquityThe Financing of New ProjectsFactors That Determine Dividend PoliciesSummary Discussion QuestionsCommunication and GovernanceGovernance OverviewManagement Communication with InvestorsCommunication Through Financial ReportingOther Forms of Communicating with InvestorsAuditor AnalysisAudit Committee ReviewsSummaryDiscussion QuestionsIndex

章節(jié)摘錄

　　Forecasting represents the first step of prospective analysis and serves to summarize the for-ward-looking view that emanates from business strategy analysis, accounting analysis, andfinancial analysis. Although not every financial statement analysis is accompanied by suchan explicit summarization of a view of the future, forecasting is still a key tool for manag-ers, consultants, security analysts, investment bankers, commercial bankers and other creditanalysts, and others.　 The best approach to forecasting future performance is to do it comprehensively——pro-ducing not only an earnings forecast but a forecast of cash flows and the balance sheet aswell. Such a comprehensive approach provides a guard against internal inconsistenciesand unrealistic implicit assumptions. The approach described here involves line-by-lineanalysis, so as to recognize that different items on the income statement and balance sheetare influenced by different drivers. Nevertheless, it remains the case that a few key pro-jections——such as sales growth and profit margin——usually drive most of the projectednumbers.　 The forecasting process should be embedded in an understanding of how variousfinancial statistics tend to behave on average, and what might cause a firm to deviate fromthat average. Absent detailed information to the contrary, one would expect sales and earn-ings numbers to persist at their current levels, adjusted for overall trends of recent years.However, rates of return on investment （ROEs） tend, over several years, to move fromabnormal to normal levels——-close to the cost of equity capital——as the forces of competi-tion come into play. Profit margins also tend to shift to normal levels, but for this statistic"normal" varies widely across firms and industries, depending on the levels of asset turn-over and leverage. Some firms are capable of creating barriers to entry that enable them tofight these tendencies toward normal returns, even for many years, but such firms are theunusual cases.　 For some purposes, including short-term planning and security analysis, forecasts forquarterly periods are desirable. One important feature of quarterly data is seasonality; atleast some seasonality exists in the sales and earnings data of nearly every industry. Anunderstanding of a firms within-year peaks and valleys is a necessary ingredient of a goodforecast of performance on a quarterly basis.　 There are a variety of contexts （including but not limited to security analysis） where theforecast is usefully summarized in the form of an estimate of the firms value——an estimatethat, after all, can be viewed as the best attempt to reflect in a single summary statistic themanagers or analysts view of the firms prospects. That process of converting a forecastinto a value estimate is labeled valuation. It is to that topic that we turn in the followingchapter.

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